The only stocks Cramer believes will work in this market are in infrastructure, oil, agriculture, aerospace/defense, health care cost-containment and gold.
"The Cramer rant heard around the world doesn't really sound too crazy anymore, does it?" Cramer explained. "The Fed has become more than a travesty," he said. "They've been so consistently wrong, they should be ashamed of themselves."
These turbulent markets were very easy to foresee, but the Fed didn't move aggressively last year, Cramer said. He said he tries to be bullish, but admitted it's hard in this environment. Out of the 6,000 stocks he follows, Cramer was able to identify only 40 to 70 names that he now finds attractive.
Cramer cited PepsiCo (PEP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Coca-Cola (KO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Altria (MO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) as good defensive names, along with Medco Health Solutions (MHS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating).
Cramer also warned viewers that "we may have lost the tech stocks." He advised sticking only with companies that are able to make their numbers, stocks like Microsoft (MSFT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating).
Tips From a Mutual Fund Guru
In turbulent markets, one strategy Cramer has found successful is piggybacking off institutional investors with great track records. One such investor is Ken Heebner, manager of the CGM Focus Fund. The fund was ranked No. 3 for the year and posted gains of 79.9% for 2007.
Cramer looked at the fund's recent filings and compared them to less recent filings to see what Heebner had recently bought and sold. He found that Heebner has sold Hansen Natural (HANS - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), MasterCard (MA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Transocean (RIG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). Cramer disagreed with the sale of Transocean.
Heebner recently purchased Posco (PKX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Arcelor (MT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Vimpel (VIP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Mobile Telesystems (MBT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Research In Motion (RIMM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Canadian Natural Resources ( CNQ - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Suncor ( SU - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Cnooc ( CEO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), CVRD ( RIO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Rio Tinto ( RTP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), BHP Billiton ( BHP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Freeport McMoRan ( FCX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), McDermott ( MDR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Foster Wheeler ( FWLT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), and Fluor (FLR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating).
Cramer said these purchases confirm his bull market theses in mining and minerals, agriculture, oil, and international markets and recommended taking a look into all of these names.
Fooled by the Stock Price
Cramer dispelled two market fallacies with a single stock in his "going-to-the- tape" segment. He examined recent moves in Darden Restaurants (DRI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), operators of the Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains, to show investors where they may go wrong in their evaluation of a stock.
The day before releasing its current earnings, Darden closed at $36, he said. The next morning, the company missed earnings estimates by 9 cents a share and lowered guidance, causing the stock to plummet to $28.60. This big move may have led investors to think the stock is too cheap with its 2.7% dividend yield, but that is the wrong conclusion, Cramer said.
"Too cheap means nothing in this market," Cramer explained. He believes Darden has no reason to go higher. The company operates only in the U.S. and has failed to make its new restaurant concepts work, Cramer pointed out. "This is not a stock that's too cheap," he said, noting it is a stock that is making the painful transition from being a growth stock to being a value stock.
Cramer noted that Darden is also a casualty of the ethanol craze. With the company's recent acquisition of Longhorn Steakhouse, it now suffers from the rising raw costs associated with corn-fed beef. "Everything Darden needs requires corn, and corn is getting expensive."
Turning a Profit in a Tough Business
Cramer welcomed Cliff Hudson, chairman and CEO of Sonic (SONC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), to the show to discuss the company's recent success. He noted that while many restaurants are struggling to make the bottom line, Sonic continues to excel.
Hudson attributed the company's success to innovation and growth, citing its "happy hour," half-priced drink promotion as one way it has sparked growth and increased traffic in a trying time for most restaurant chains. He acknowledged a "challenging environment with commodities and labor getting tougher," but sees price elasticity in many of their markets.
Cramer pointed out that he's been behind Sonic since day one. The company still does not have national exposure but does have an aggressive stock-repurchase program.
In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Halliburton (HAL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Schlumberger (SLB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Transocean (RIG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Oceaneering International (OII - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), FMC Technologies (FTI - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), McDonald's (MCD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Yamana Gold (AUY - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Barrick Gold (ABX - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), VF Corp. (VFC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Monsanto (MON - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Core Labs (CLB - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating),
Cramer was bearish on Parker Drilling (PKD - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Western Refining (WNR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Valero Energy (VLO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), NetSuite (N - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and Dendreon (DNDN - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating)
Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing by clicking here.
For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.
